The predictive power of commodity prices for future economic growth

Commodity Prices and GDP Growth - Search eLibrary :: SSRN

Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power. Overall, ...

Predictive Dynamics in Commodity Prices

... economic covariates improves upon the predictive power of the AR(1) model. ... pt is the oil price, as a predictor of economic growth. Given the ...

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature

This paper is a product of the Development Prospects Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the. World Bank to provide open access to ...

Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of price ...

Forecast ability of futures prices has also been shown to decline when markets are highly volatile (McKenzie and Holt, 2002). This further ...

Commodity prices and GDP growth - IDEAS/RePEc

This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity ...

Chapter 4: Commodity Price Swings and Commodity Exporters

10 Real GDP growth for the median commodity exporter was 1½ to 3½ percentage points higher during the 1970s and 2 to 4 percentage points higher during the 2000s ...

How Easy Is It to Forecast Commodity Prices?

Because commodity markets are characterized by relatively inelastic demand, even small revisions in the expected path of future supply expansion ...

Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and ...

Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the ...

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

202⒋ The predictive power of commodity prices for future economic growth: ... 202⒊ The financial market's ability to forecast economic growth: information from.

Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?

We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of copper and soybeans, albeit not crude oil, for stock prices of all these East ...

The Predictive Power of Macroeconomic Uncertainty for Commodity ...

(2016) claim that foreign exchange variable prices commodity futures and contains information about future movements in commodity markets.

The Role of Commodity Prices in Forecasting U.S. Core Inflation

Abstract: This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. ...

Regime‐dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis

future value of commodity prices may be of lesser importance than predicting ... He has published extensively to topics related to applied econometrics, economic ...

[PDF] Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation

Abstract This paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and ...

Expected Spot Prices and the Dynamics of Commodity Risk Premia

prediction errors and changes in aggregate economic growth. The main ... Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the.

Commodity Prices and Global Economic Activity: a derived-demand ...

The objective is to highlight the value of daily information and build real-time forecasts of the current. (and future) real GDP growth rates. A number of ...

How to Bring More Predictive Power to Economic Forecasts

The paper explained how its algorithm does a better job than standard forecasting models in predicting future GDP per capita growth. A one ...

Time-Varying Impact of Commodity Prices on Output Growth and ...

Enilov, M. (2023). The predictive power of commodity prices for future economic growth: Evaluating the role of economic development. Int. J. Financ. Econ.

Predictive Dynamics in Commodity Prices

bond premium have limited predictive power over movements in agricultural, metals and currency futures prices ... Only growth in the money supply seems ...

Oxford Economics Industry-specific Forecasting Services | Oxford ...

Navigate economic uncertainty and find growth opportunities with Oxford Economics. Access leading global forecasting and quantitative analysis. Learn more.