[PDF] Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks

OIL AND THE GREAT MODERATION - Banco de España

The effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation: Evidence from the G7 countries. CEPR Discussion. Papers 5404, Centre for Economic Policy ...

Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?

Shocks in the Crude Oil Market.” American Economic Review in press. Kilian, L. (2008b) “Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they ...

Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy

• New method to identify exogenous oil supply shocks. – Most studies: all variations in oil prices are exogenous oil supply shocks. (no immediate impact of ...

The impact of oil supply shocks on real economic activity

Specifically, unfavorable exogenous oil supply shocks can lower the consumer sentiment index. (CSI) and consumer confidence index (CCI), decrease real net ...

Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do ...

The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current ...

Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy

To address this concern we test for whether oil prices can be treated as weakly exogenous in the country-specific oil supply equations, and find that we cannot ...

Northumbria Research Link

The impulse response analysis shows that the identified exogenous oil supply shocks of both OPEC and non-OPEC significantly raise oil price and unemployment.

Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

When exogenous political events do affect oil prices, as happened after the Iranian Revolution or during the Persian Gulf War, my analysis ...

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer ...

While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative ...

Supply Chain Disruption and Energy Supply Shocks: Impact on Euro ...

Source: Eurostat and S&P Global. weakly correlated with oil prices. According to monthly data pro- vided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ...

The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across ...

For example, exogenous disruptions in the supply of crude oil that lead to higher oil prices are expected to result in depressed economic activity and rising ...

The Impacts of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Mediterranean ...

2.1 Measuring exogenous oil supply shocks. We measure exogenous shocks to the supply of crude oil in OPEC member countries using the approach of Kilian ...

SPE-181542-MS Oil Price Shocks: A Measure of the Exogenous and ...

Section 3 introduces the new measure of monthly exogenous and endogenous supply shocks of crude oil that quantifies the timing, magnitude ...

Impacts of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic ...

To analyze the impact of exogenous shocks on the US economy, he assumed that the crude oil supply does not respond to shocks to the demand for oil within the ...

The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices

Second, within the BVAR models, we isolate price changes that are caused by exogenous oil and food commodity supply shocks, which allows us to esti- mate causal ...

The Impact of Oil Shocks on Sovereign Default Risk

“A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and. Page 27. 25. Inflation in the G7 Countries.” Journal of the European Economic ...

How does stock market volatility react to oil price shocks? - arXiv

Supply side oil shocks have no impact on realized volatility, a result which is confirmed also using. Kilian's (2008a) measure of exogenous oil supply shocks.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks

The sign restrictions are derived from a simple supply-demand scheme of the oil market. An oil supply shock is an exogenous shift of the oil supply curve to the ...

The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global ...

Although, neither negative oil supply shocks nor positive speculative demand shocks alone can explain the oil price spike ... oil to exogenous oil ...

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited*

Using a VAR model, Blanchard and Gali (2007) estimate that exogenous oil-price shocks were responsible for only about a third of the swing in real GDP.26 If we ...