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Currency crisis models


Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate ...

Krugman-style models of exchange rate crises focus on the optimizing behav ior of private markets during a crisis. The public sector behavior is generally.

First and Second Generation Crisis Model, Feenstra (Part 2)

Chapter 9 (Part 2): Exchange Rate Crises: How pegs work and How They Break - First generation crises model - Second generation crisis model ...

Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features

The discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple ...

Currency Crisis Models for Emerging Markets - Cbonds

The method models a continuous crisis index based on depreciations and reserve losses. The fact that during currency crises, the behaviour of market ...

Predicting currency crises: The indicators approach and an alternative

First, we try to answer the question: if we had been using the KLR model in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asia crisis? Second, we ...

CURRENCY CRISES: MODELS AND THEIR POSSIBILITY IN ...

Increased integration of the financial markets brought new forms and more global character of the crises episodes. A currency crisis, according to many ...

Early warning systems for currency crises

In the limited dependent regression models (logit or probit models), the currency crisis indicator is modelled as a zero-one variable, as in the signals ...

Abstract - LSE Research Online

MarRa Mercedes Tudela is a member of the Centre for Economic Performance, London. School of Economics. Page 6. Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration. Model ...

Institutions, Expectations, and Currency Crises | Cambridge Core

Specifically, we argue that institutional variables—particularly divided government and government turnover—increase the variance of expectations held by ...

A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises

the exchange rate any longer. It sometimes happens, however, that the government is able to weather the crisis by calling on some kind of secondary ...

Perspectives on Currency Crises - ICRIER

While the above model of currency crisis shows the inconsistency between continuous creation of domestic credit and a fixed exchange rate, a currency crisis can.

Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis

In their model, a cur- rency crisis in one country that results in a devaluation affects the competitiveness of that country's trading partners thereby forcing ...

Currency Crisis - What Is It, Examples, Causes, Models

Heavy fluctuations in the stock and foreign exchange market, increase in inflation and unemployment, a downturn of the economy, adverse changes ...

Balance of Payments Crises 1 Introduction 2 First-generation models

This volatility of capital flows often cause currency crises, banking instability as well as debt crises. In these lectures we will analyze these crisis ...

The Model | RDP 2002-08: Currency Crises and Macroeconomic ...

Figures 4 and 5 show simulations with no import price pass-through, and the outcomes are different. Currency crisis simulations show the deterministic path of ...

Notes on the Currency Crisis Model - Willmann

Notes on the Currency Crisis Model. Consider a country which a) has a fixed exchange rate and b) runs substantial budget deficits. (did anyone say Argentina ...

GENERALIZED APPROACH TO CURRENCY CRISIS RISK ...

Three types of currency crisis models coexist in the literature: first generation models view speculative attacks as being caused by economic fundamentals.

Financial Crises: Traditional crisis models and fiscal sustainability

Traditional models of currency crises explain them as a consequence of unsustainable fiscal policy. In these models a government that fixes or heavily ...

Explaining currency crises - TheGlobalEconomy.com

There are three main theories that explain currency crises. They are called the first, second, and third generation models of currency crises due to the timing ...

A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises - IDEAS/RePEc

Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, ...