How much opportunity for arbitrage is there in prediction markets?

Energy Storage Price Arbitrage via Opportunity Value Function ...

The prediction accuracy drops significantly at a longer prediction horizon, such as 24 hours, to capture the daily price variations, which are ...

The Limits of Arbitrage - by Rajiv Sethi

Something quite interesting has been happening on prediction markets over the ... If many try to exploit this opportunity at scale, the price of ...

Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting - wiwi.uni-muenster.de

Inter-market arbitrage opportunities mostly arise from inefficiently low-priced bookmaker bets (over-favourable odds) that the bettor can sell at a higher price ...

Twilight of the Efficient Markets | American Scientist

On the one hand, the assumption that there are no opportunities for arbitrage is the basis for all calculations. On the other hand, for all prices to be ...

Limits to Arbitrage in Electricity Markets: A Case Study of MISO

... arbitrage opportunities as far as possible. ... The blue line shows profits from a strategy that uses the prediction and buying strategy above, and leaves the ...

What AI Sees in the Market (That You Might Not) - Chicago Booth

That's been the outcome with arbitrage strategies—their returns fall when too many investors are chasing the limited opportunities. However ...

Prediction markets have an elections problem | Hacker News

As many mentioned here, the fees are high. That contributes to market inefficiency for sure. Arbitrage opportunities pop up there all the time, but ones that ...

ETF arbitrage under liquidity mismatch

... the short cost per share in the two markets are cB and cE ... in daily ETF shares outstanding on the perceived arbitrage opportunity, market volatility and their ...

Airbnb Rental Arbitrage: Models, Methods, & Opportunities - AirDNA

It is essential to understand the data and how and why the arbitrage opportunity might be temporary. Economic theory suggests that arbitrage ...

How Can You Detect Arbitrage in Sports Betting? [Simple Guide]

When Do Arbitrage Opportunities Occur? · Set odds too high due to the competitive betting market and wanting to stay relevant. · Do not adjust ...

Sequential Markets, Market Power, and Arbitrage - Koichiro Ito

how fringe firms and dominant firms respond to the price arbitrage opportunities in sequential markets. ... Yet, how far is it from full arbitrage? How ...

Information aggregation, speculation, and arbitrage in a ... - Cairn

This might lead to imitation or learning, which may accelerate the movement of the market prices towards the arbitrage-free price. The corresponding change of ...

Arbitrage Definition: Types and Uses for Investment Strategy - Strike

Arbitrage opportunities exist in many markets and provide investors with a low risk way to make high returns. For example, if a stock is trading for Rs.10 in ...

Covered Interest Parity Arbitrage | The Review of Financial Studies

... (A-1/P-1) banks that does have access to USD CD markets, many do not enjoy economically attractive arbitrage opportunities because of their elevated funding ...

Forex Arbitrage — Data-Driven Mathematical Optimization ... - AMPL

As one might expect, arbitrage opportunities involving a simple round-trip between a pair of currencies are almost non-existent in real-world markets. When the ...

Why prediction markets aren't popular - Works in Progress

But they remain unpopular, because they lack key features that make markets attractive. Many entrepreneurs have tried to create prediction ...

Arbitrage in Commodity Markets and the Dynamics of Storage

This paper studies inventory adjustments in response to arbitrage opportunities, using the U.S. crude oil market as the experimental setting. We extend the ...

Inter- market Arbitrage in Sports Betting - IDEAS/RePEc

However, we find 1,450 cases in which a combined bet at the bookmaker as well as at the exchange yields a guaranteed positive return. Further analyses reveal ...

Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage

Such arbitrage opportunities are much less attractive if short-term government paper is considered as the risk-free investment asset. The reason is that market ...

Pricing High Growth Firms: Arbitrage Opportunities in the Inc. 100

Many of these firms belong to the smaller capitalization decile of the market, and as such may not be as closely followed by institutional investors as larger, ...