Optimism bias and cost overruns

Moving beyond optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation: An ...

Dive into the research topics of 'Moving beyond optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation: An explanation for social infrastructure project cost overruns'.

Optimism, Hubris, and Strategic Misrepresentation

Optimism, Hubris, and Strategic Misrepresentation · (Plus a Bias for Action, and Uniqueness Bias) Why Big Projects Are So Bad · Optimism Bias.

Perspectives on Optimism within the Context of Project Management

To eliminate intentional or unintentional planning mistakes leading to time and cost overrun, current project management theories prescribe the eradication of ...

Optimism bias | Psychology Wiki - Fandom

Optimism bias arises in relation to estimates of costs and benefits and duration of tasks. It must be accounted for explicitly in appraisals, if these are to be ...

What Causes Optimism Bias in Transportation Projects? - CEEOL

Noteworthy examples of large-scale transportation infrastructure projects with significant cost overruns and a noticeable benefit deficit include the Channel ...

Cost overruns in infrastructure projects: distributions, causes and ...

Technical errors and inherent uncertainties cannot be the root cause… • … so main causes must be “strategic misrepresentation” (lying) and optimism bias. ‒ “If ...

How does optimism bias affect the cost and schedule of major ...

Optimism bias has been identified as a significant factor contributing to cost and schedule overruns in major capital projects.

Section 13 - Transport Scotland - The Scottish Government

These optimism bias values are only intended for appraisal purposes. It may be appropriate to use a different way of taking into account potential cost overruns ...

Understanding over-optimism can help organizations avoid poor ...

In cases of optimism bias, people genuinely overestimate their control and ability to deliver, resulting in inaccurate estimations of time ...

Optimism Bias and Contingency at Homes England | PDF - Scribd

26. Research into the track record of past project performance (Flyvbjerg et al. 200411, Flyvbjerg 201112, 201413, 201714) shows that projects' outturn cost ...

Has reference class forecasting delivered its promised success?

... optimism and Kahneman's optimism bias is equivalent to what ... optimism and strategic misrepresentation are the best explanations for cost overruns.

Appendix 16: Optimism Bias - Wiley Online Library

1, the risk of investment cost overruns can be treated as statistically similar. Step 2: Decide on the stage of the project. Optimism bias assumes that as a ...

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... optimism bias and strategic ... financial responsibility for covering cost overruns and benefit shortfalls resulting from misrepresentation and bias in ...

Does the Planning Fallacy Prevail in Social Infrastructure Projects ...

The planning fallacy is at play in projects when optimism bias and/or strategic misrepresentation are present. We examine the cost performance of ...

Assessing evidence of Cognitive Biases in the estimation of costs ...

A review of the literature associated with cost overruns and optimism bias has been undertaken. This review has shown that overconfidence by ...

Evidence on The Government's Management of Major Projects

and cost-effectiveness in RCF does not solve the problem of cost overruns but it ... It only uses the measure of cost overrun as a proxy for optimism bias (i.e..

Scrap optimism bias say public sector clients - Metric Views

They have produced a report which concludes that using the Treasury optimism bias mechanism to anticipate cost overruns is costing billions of ...

Optimism bias in teams - apppm - Doing projects

It is rare for forecasters to mention optimism bias to be stated as the cause of project delays, going over budget, change of scope etc. Here it ...

Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?

Keywords: The principle of the Hiding Hand, the planning fallacy, optimism bias, wider development impacts, dynamic linkages, cost-benefit ...

Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects - arXiv

financial responsibility for covering cost overruns and benefit ... indicated that the promoters' estimates were optimistic and that optimism bias uplifts.