Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets

We show that contracts hosted by PredictIt, compared to the IEM, are chronically mispriced, with large arbitrage profits in the 2016 election markets.

View of Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets

Presentation Mode Open Print Download Current View. Go to First Page Go to Last Page. Rotate Clockwise Rotate Counterclockwise. Text Selection Tool

Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets - ResearchGate

For instance, Stershic and Gujral (2020) investigated the prediction market data from the 2016 U.S. presidential election to prove that ...

The 2024 Election's Other Big Loser: Prediction Markets - Forbes

In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, much attention has focused on the implications of President Trump's historic return to ...

Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit - YouTube

Step-by-step tutorial to find and profit from arbitrage opportunities on Predictit. Predictit is market with unique attributes that makes it ...

Arbitrage in prediction markets - NZAE

A prediction market is a relatively new form of financial market whose ultimate purpose is to predict the outcome of an uncertain future event.

Political Arbitrage Activity - Investopedia

Political arbitrage activity is a type of arbitrage activity that involves trading securities based on knowledge of potential future political activity.

Make a Fortune Arbitraging Prediction Markets during the 2024 ...

These platforms, where users trade shares on the likelihood of various events, offer a unique avenue for savvy traders to profit through ...

Political arbitrage: Explained - TIOmarkets

Discover how political arbitrage impacts financial markets. Learn strategies traders use to profit from political events.

A tale of two prediction markets - Sherwood News

The gap in presidential election odds may have created an arbitrage opportunity in these new prediction markets....

(PDF) Arbitrage trade in prediction markets - ResearchGate

PDF | By using data from five similar prediction market (PM) contracts on the 2008 American presidential election in two different market ...

Kamala Harris, Prediction Markets, and the Limits to Arbitrage

Everyone loves a good arb. In finance, arbitrage opportunities—the same asset selling for different prices in different markets—are prized: ...

Presidential prediction markets | Acadian Asset Management

Who will be the next president of the United States? The best answer to this question is found at prediction markets such as Polymarket and PredictIt.

Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach - arXiv

A mathematical complication arises as we move to continu- ous time and apply the standard martingale approach: namely that as a probability forecast, the ...

A Trump Trade Arbitrage - Bloomberg.com

As of about noon today, you could buy a Donald Trump contract — one that pays off $1 if he wins the election — for about $0.49 on Kalshi, and ...

The Prediction Trade - tastylive

Explore the dramatic surge in U.S. political betting markets as Chris Vecchio and Jeff Joseph analyze Trump's odds soaring to 60.5% on ...

ARBITRAGE IN POLITICAL PREDICTION MARKETS - ProQuest

We show that contracts hosted by PredictIt, compared to the IEM, are chronically mispriced, with large arbitrage profits in the 2016 election markets and ...

Arbitrage Trade In Prediction Markets - IDEAS/RePEc

Downloadable! By using data from five similar prediction market (PM) contracts on the 2008 American presidential election in two different market places ...

Analyzing Cross-Market Political Arbitrage: 8% Spread Between US ...

I've been analyzing the betting odds for the 2024 U.S. presidential election and noticed a discrepancy between U.S. and Australian betting ...

The money is flooding in, but what are prediction markets truly telling ...

Why are Kalshi's election odds priced so differently from the polls right now? Jack Such, Kalshi: You're correct that some people will bet with ...