Are climate models overestimating warming?

We recently wrote a post responding to claims that the models are running cold and future warming will be larger than models predict.

Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming ...

The authors found no evidence that the climate models evaluated either systematically overestimated or underestimated warming over the period of ...

Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?

Despite a best estimate of climate sensitivity a tad lower than the 3C used today, the FAR overestimated the rate of warming between 1970 and ...

Have climate models overestimated global warming?

A 2019 study concluded that 17 climate models used between 1970 and 2007 were "skillful in predicting" future temperatures.

Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming

Now, the most sweeping evaluation of these older models—some half a century old—shows most of them were indeed accurate. "How much warming we are having today ...

Are we underestimating global warming? - Vox

But, in assembling this report, scientists were surprised that a subset of climate models were producing warming estimates that were much hotter ...

Use of 'too hot' climate models exaggerates impacts of global warming

Researchers should no longer simply use the average of all the climate model projections, which can result in global temperatures by 2100 up to 0.7°C warmer ...

Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models

The observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by almost all computerized climate models.

Are Climate Models Overpredicting Global Warming? - Cato Institute

Many recent climate models have been predicting dire global changes. The problem is climate forecasters currently ignore decades of scientific best‐ practices.

Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

... overestimated or. Table 1. Model Skill Scores ... skill that early models have shown in successfully projecting future warming suggests that climate models.

What's wrong with these climate models?

Climate models accurately predicted ocean warming, but observed sea surface temperatures show the reality is more complicated.

Researchers correct overestimation by 'hot model' climate ... - Phys.org

Results showed that the future warming of mean and extreme temperatures, constrained by this method, is 1.29°C and 1.20°C lower than the raw ...

Fact Brief - Have climate models overestimated global warming?

A more recent study published in 2023 looked at climate models created by scientists working for ExxonMobil. Their modeling was found to have ...

Fact Brief: Have climate models overestimated global warming?

NO, Climate models have correctly predicted how the planet would warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions.Models use the laws of physics ...

Heartland Institute report's claim that climate models are too ...

Unsupported: There is no evidence that climate models systematically overestimate the climate's sensitivity to CO2. Rather, independent lines of research ...

Climate models overestimate natural variability

By looking at satellite measurements of temperature changes in the lower layer of Earth's atmosphere, LLNL scientists found that climate models ...

High end of climate sensitivity in new climate models seen as less ...

The higher-sensitivity models, however, include a stronger cooling effect from aerosol-cloud interaction that offsets the greater warming due to ...

Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models

TEMPERATURE TREND, 1973–2022, IN DEGREES CELSIUS PER DECADE. MODEL. CHART 2. Climate Models Vastly Overstated Warming. The observed 12–state ...

Overestimated climate warming and climate variability due ... - Nature

However, in current studies of climate modeling, anthropogenic CO2 is usually treated as a well-mixed greenhouse gas, meaning that the ...

Basics of Global Climate Models

The size and complexity of the Earth make it challenging to represent in a model. This is in part because different places on the planet have different ...