Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of price ...

Futures prices tend to over-forecast when futures prices are high and under-forecast when futures prices are low, suggesting that futures prices tend to under- ...

Forecast errors are larger when futures prices are high. The findings are related to theories in the literature used to explain pricing bias, and their ...

Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of

Futures forecast perform well in the centre of the distribution. However, futures prices tend to over-forecast when futures prices are high and under-forecast ...

Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of price ...

Forecast errors are larger when futures prices are high. The findings are related to theories in the literature used to explain pricing bias, ...

Are Futures Prices Good Price Forecasts? Nonlinearities in ...

Depending on the level of futures prices, thresholds or regimes of predictive performance exist. Evidence of market exuberance/pessimism emerges as many of the ...

Do Futures Prices Help Forecast Spot Prices? Evidence from ... - MDPI

Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of price reversion in the soybean complex. Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ. 2020, 47, 178–199 ...

Joshua Huang - USDA ERS

“Are Futures Prices Good Price Forecasts? Underestimation of Price Reversion in the Soybean Complex,” European Review of Agricultural ...

Forecasting the Price of Oil - Federal Reserve Board

In this sense cash prices will be nearly as good predictions of subsequent cash prices as futures prices”, echoing in turn the discussion in Working (1942) ...

Do Futures Markets Aggravate Rise in Prices? - jstor

... futures price forecasts as a result of which ready prices are constantly pushed up above the levels at which they would rule in the absence of futures trading.

What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?

Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared ...

Can Futures Prices Predict the Real Price of Primary Commodities?

Results suggest that academics, policymakers, and industry can consider utilizing futures prices as forecasts of commodity prices. Keywords: ...

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature

model suite is to develop a range of commodity price forecasts rather than a single “best” forecast. These approaches were used to establish quarterly forecasts ...

Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts - jstor

(a) I begin with a formal model of price level and basis (price difference)behav- ior for a grain to clarify Working's original argument (perhaps best stated in.

[PDF] Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts | Semantic Scholar

Futures markets provide contemporaneous price quotations for a constellation of contracts with maturities thirty or more months in the ...

What can the oil futures curve tell us about the outlook for oil prices?

But alternative oil price assumptions do not appear to offer consistently better predictions than the futures curve assumption. Moreover, the futures curve ...

Does the Future Price Help Forecast the Spot Price?

Efficient market hypothesis suggests the futures price as the best forecast. Studying the spot and futures prices movements is not only ...

The Response of US Natural Gas Futures and Spot Prices to ...

forecast underestimates the actual by about 2%. The estimation ... “Analyst forecasts and price discovery in futures markets: The case ...

IDU07821126108129045030af6...

Section 3 presents the six models selected for forecasting the seven industrial commodity prices. Section 4 discusses these models' forecast performance.

‪Joshua Huang‬ - ‪Google Scholar‬

... commodity markets - ‪agricultural futures and‬ ... Are futures prices good price forecasts? Underestimation of price reversion in the soybean complex.

Determining Oil & Gas Futures Strip Prices – Best Practices

All three (3) cases represent expected market volatility and the resulting pricing forecast. Overall, futures prices more successfully predict actual markets ...