Commodity Prices as Predictors of Aggregate Price Change

[1988] also found that two commodity indexes had little predictive value. Most of the authors used. Granger causality tests to reach their conclusions. This ...

A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows ...

Commodity prices as predictors of aggregate price change

A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good predictors of future aggregate price changes. This paper examines that proposition. It shows ...

Commodity Prices as Predictors of Aggregate Price Change

First, inflation is a monetary phenomenon that should be eliminated. Second, commodity prices are determined in auction markets; they will ...

[PDF] Commodity Prices as Predictors of Aggregate Price Change ...

Many analysts have advocated using commodity prices as a guide for monetary policy. A necessary condition is that changes in commodity prices are good ...

COMMODITY PRICES AND AGGREGATE INFLATION

aggregate price changes." Even with this narrowing of the topic we are !eft ... (2) If commodity prices are an incremental predictor, to what are they ...

Forecasting Inflation using Commodity Price Aggregates

indexes of commodity prices provides superior forecasts than do aggregates. ... not respond to changes in asset prices, except insofar as they reflect ...

The predictive power of commodity prices for future economic growth

This paper investigates the extent to which commodity prices can predict economic growth, the growth exposure of the countries to specific ...

I The Use of Commodity Prices to Forecast Inflation in - IMF eLibrary

Focusing on the aggregate inflation rate for a broad group of countries may also enhance the measured importance of commodity prices as a leading indicator; ...

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

has remained close to the spot price; storage costs for copper do not rise sharply with ... If a= 0 and β = 1 then futures are an unbiased predictor of the spot ...

Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing

Return predictability is countercyclical, and the combination forecasts of commodity returns have significant predictive power for future economic activity. Two ...

Common factors of commodity prices - European Central Bank

We compute model-based historical decompositions of commodity price changes and we find that the global factor ex-.

CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES? - jstor

shows how well the Chilean exchange rate alone can forecast changes in the aggregate commodity market index since 1999. Although we report in-sample test ...

A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices

A second measure of forecast performance is directional accuracy, i.e., the fraction of predictions that were the correct sign. If commodity price changes ...

The 2021 Commodity Price Surge: Causes and Impacts on Trade ...

This special topic chapter examines the significant rise in commodity prices in 2021, the impact the higher prices had on U.S. trade in 2020–21, and the factors ...

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

currencies each have predictive power for price changes in the aggregate global commodity market. As an example, Figure 3 shows how well the Chilean ...

Commodity Prices and Global Economic Activity: a derived-demand ...

In the forecasting exercise, using model combination, covariates (predictors) which are potentially correlated with the price of oil were employed. The start is ...

How Much Will the Rise in Commodity Prices Reduce Discretionary ...

Overall, it appears that the discretionary income effects of commodity price changes generally have been a fairly small factor in aggregate ...

The Role of Commodity Price Aggregates for Monetary Policy

However, our findings also suggest that the information contained in commodity prices can be helpful in predicting both CPI and PPI inflation, and may therefore ...

Commodity Price Cycles - World Bank Documents and Reports

Joint fluctuations in commodity prices can be driven by unexpected changes in aggregate economic activity. For example, an increase in aggre- gate economic ...