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Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices


Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

Expectations of future commodity prices are a critical determinant of spot prices, and this linkage depends on the capacity to store commodities in inventory.

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

The key results of our analysis are that futures prices have generally outperformed a random walk forecast, but not by a large margin, while ...

Evaluating the forecasting performance of commodity futures prices

Trevor A. Reeve & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of commodity futures prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1025, ...

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

The key results of our analysis are that futures prices have generally outperformed a random walk forecast, but not by a large margin, while both futures and a ...

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices · Trevor A. Reeve · Robert J. Vigfusson · Do you have a job opening that you ...

Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices

In this paper, we attempt to shed light on these concerns by discussing the theoretical relationship between spot and futures prices for commodities and by ...

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Modern Forecasting Models in ...

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity ...

Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment

ASSESSING FORECAST PERFORMANCE. When evaluating the ex-post effectiveness of forecasts, standard statistical measures are commonly used. Mean pricing error ...

Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets

The realized price volatility of futures markets, the time to maturity, open interest, trading volumes and speculative measures are significant factors ...

SPECIAL FOCUS - Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

Forecasting methodologies · evaluated. Source: World Bank. A. Number of studies that examine the forecast performance of futures prices, machine learning.

Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models

Price forecasts are typically evaluated on the basis of statistical criteria, such as mean error, mean absolute error, or root mean squared error.

Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment

This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical ...

varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices

5.1 Forecast Evaluation Metrics. We perform a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise to evaluate the performance of the competing forecasting methods ...

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Modern Forecasting Models in

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity ...

Forecasting stock market volatility using commodity futures volatility ...

By incorporating volatility information from nineteen commodity futures prices, this paper compares the predictive ability of traditional individual AR-type ...

Modeling and Forecasting Commodity Futures Prices - IEEE Xplore

This study aims to model and forecast the market price of commodity futures. We applied decomposition techniques, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and ...

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: An Assessment

This Special Focus evaluates the performance of five well-known approaches to forecasting the prices of three key industrial commodities: aluminum, copper, and ...

Performance Prediction of Commodity Prices Using Foreign ...

Abstract. In an experimental quantitative research design, data from the Futures Market for commodities and foreign exchange futures covering 1986-2011 were ...

Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts - jstor

pirical analyses of the forecasting performance of futures ... is true for other forecasts. The statistical evaluation of pricing efficiency most likely is ...

Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in ...

implications for hedging and forecasting. In this article, we examine the forecast performance of several models using daily futures prices for 4 commodities.