Evidence of Prediction Market Inefficiency from PredictIt's 2020 U.S. ...

Aiden Singh argues that exploitable inefficiencies were present in PredictIt's 2020 election prediction markets.

Prediction Markets - Social Science Encyclopedia

I claim that these pricing inefficiencies were the result of a subset of market participants acting on misinformation which erroneously led them to conclude ...

Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem—Asterisk

... evidence of inefficiency and irrationality in political prediction markets. One study found that betting markets for the 2016 EU referendum in the U.K. were ...

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a much more accurate reflection ...

What's behind Trump's big lead in prediction markets - Axios

... U.S. presidency, leading some observers to suggest that if Kamala Harris prevails, it will represent a failure of the market's predictive power.

Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets - ResearchGate

This research provides cautionary evidence of potential inefficiencies ... Liquidity and Prediction Market Efficiency. Article. May 2008. Paul ...

Why Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem : r/slatestarcodex

That you could bet on Donald Trump to win after the election doesn't negate the efficiency of pre election odds which is what people should care ...

Why prediction markets aren't popular - Works in Progress

The scarcity of prediction markets in the world today is not a failure of regulation, but a sign that they are much less promising than many ...

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

... prediction market active at the time, performed similarly to FiveThirtyEight that year. ... efficiency,” campaigned on an assertion that the ...

Political Betting Markets: Inefficiencies, Information Integration, and ...

Theories of derivative market inefficiency largely look at informational inefficiencies. (Fridson, 2006; Shleifer, 2009). More specifically, certain traders may ...

Presidential prediction markets | Acadian Asset Management

... U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet”). PredictIt's trade limits make it more inefficient, and the PredictIt prices for Harris are just wrong.

How good are election prediction markets?

... failure as a reason to discard markets; we should just recognize that markets are human constructs which, for both theoretical and practical ...

Prediction Markets: How Reliable Are They Really? (Part 1) - Forbes

Second, the EMH is not an accurate picture of the stock market. Hardly anyone believes in strict market efficiency anymore. It is quite ...

Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets

prediction market political prediction election forecasting arbitrage market efficiency binary option ... 2020 markets. We discuss the role ...

Models vs. Markets: Forecasting the 2020 U.S. election

Limitations of Markets Most prior studies of political prediction markets focus on their efficiency: how well do markets respond to new ...

Can You Rationally Disagree with a Prediction Market? - Brown JPPE

This suggest that even to the extent markets are inefficient, we are bad at consistently identifying these inefficiencies. Beyond Finance: Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have an elections problem | Hacker News

As many mentioned here, the fees are high. That contributes to market inefficiency for sure. Arbitrage opportunities pop up there all the time, but ones that ...

Prediction Markets Failed The Midterm (Election) Exams - Forbes

In the 2022 midterm elections, all the prediction markets failed spectacularly. Right up to the night of the election, they projected outcomes for key races ...

(PDF) Partisan Sentiment and Returns from Online Political Betting ...

... market eﬃciency, we determine the marginal fore-. castability of partisan sentiment utilizing out-of-sample forecasting evaluation for the ...

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction ...

These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency ...