How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Estimates?

I show that the elasticity of official GDP figures to nighttime lights is systematically larger in more authoritarian regimes. This autocracy gradient in the ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

My main estimate of σ suggests that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by about 35% (ie, a true growth rate of 1% is reported as 1.35%).

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP. Growth Estimates? Luis R. Martinez. ∗. Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago. First version ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

Do autocracies overstate GDP growth more than democracies? - The state of the economy is a major determinant of political turnover in both.

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the GDP data for manipulation leads to a more ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator ' s GDP Estimates

I study the manipulation of GDP statistics in weak and non-democracies. I show that the elasticity of official GDP figures to nighttime lights is ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

... Our results remain robust to this alternative exercise as well.9 In a study on the overstatement of economic growth in non-democracies, Martinez (2022) ...

Reproduction of "How much should we trust the dictator's GDP ... - OSF

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A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth

The data showed that dictators' reported GDP tended to grow much faster than satellite images of their countries would suggest. This could not ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

The gradient is larger when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on such exaggeration are weaker. The ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?

By Luis Martinez; Abstract: I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time ...

Luis Martinez - Ostrom Workshop

“How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Estimates?” ABSTRACT: This ... Based on the excess elasticity, I estimate that yearly reported GDP growth is 15-30%.

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Estimates?

[28] in his work finds that most authoritarian regimes inflate their growth rate findings by a factor of about 1.15 to 1.3. It was found that the ...

Luis R. Martinez on X: ""How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's ...

"How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?" is now forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: ...

Satellites Shed Light on Dictators' Lies About Economic Growth

Can We Trust China's GDP Data? TLDR News Global•232K views · 5:47. Go ... Here's why it could be a historically slim win. CNN New 19K views.

‪Luis R. Martinez‬ - ‪Google Scholar‬

How much should we trust the dictator's GDP growth estimates? LR Martinez. Journal of Political Economy 130 (10), 2731-2769, 2022. 287*, 2022 ; Natural resource ...

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates ...

The re- sults suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approxi- mately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nu- anced view on ...

Luis Martinez - Emory University - Google Sites

I am (acting) associate professor at the department of political science ... How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates? Journal of ...

Reconsidering Regime Type and Growth: Lies, Dictatorships, and

We take the average GDP from 1992 and 1993 as the starting point and the ... able to provide the first estimates of how much dictator- ships exaggerate ...

Satellites to Authoritarian Regimes: Your GDP Is Inflated

Average Growth in GDP and Nighttime Lights across Regime Types. Source: Luis R. Martinez, “How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Estimates ...