How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

For free market purists, the success of betting sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt isn't surprising at all. The basic theory behind ...

On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a much more accurate reflection ...

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

New York (CNN) — In the days leading up to the US election, pollsters had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip.

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

538 had him as a 55% favourite at some point, he was the favourite for like the last 3 weeks. That last iowa poll really messed up people's ...

How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in ...

The success of Polymarket and other betting platforms in calling the election will bring an end to the era of political forecasting as we ...

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

US pollsters taking heat – again – for failing to predict Trump triumph

Polling experts called on to explain surveys that showed Trump and Harris deadlocked in a race deemed too close to call.

prediction markets | PBS News

Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did ...

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

USA Markets - How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't - stock market news and uk share prices - stock market news and uk share ...

Prediction markets in 2024 and poll aggregation in 2008

The markets were giving Trump between 50% and 56% of winning the electoral college, very close to the polling-based forecasts which were pretty ...

What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got Wrong - New York Magazine

So it does not appear the 2024 national polling error is all that egregious, and it may be less than the 4 percent error in 2012 (when the polls ...

Prediction Markets for the Win - Marginal REVOLUTION

The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, ...

Allan Lichtman explains why his Harris victory prediction was wrong

Lichtman, a historian known for his predictions of presidential elections and who expected a Kamala Harris victory, is explaining what ...

Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong ...

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan and the market niche he took mainstream in 2024 can take a victory lap. Along with Donald Trump, the Republican ...

Why do people think prediction market odds are predictive of real ...

presidential off shifts towards Trump is genuinely funny to me. These betting markets are not and were never meant to be predictive of real ...

Political prediction markets: 'Something worse than polling' - YouTube

Stephanie Ruhle sits down with Yale University's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld to discuss the political betting markets and where corporate America's ...

Five Unusual Indicators That Could Predict Presidential Election ...

With the election just under a month away, Newsweek looks at some unconventional methods which could indicate who will win the White House.

Public Opinion Polling Basics | Pew Research Center

How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey ...

Nate Silver: Don't trust Trump swing in polling, prediction markets

Nate Silver is on record saying the presidential election momentum is with Donald Trump, but it's not because polling or markets data has ...

Reality Check: An insider's guide to how political polls work

While the first political polls began in the 1824 presidential election as straw polls, or informal headcounts on candidates and issues, polling ...