Indicators of economic crises

Recession: Indicators and How to Prepare - TD Bank

There are a few key economic indicators that can help you determine when a recession might begin.

Indicators of economic crises: a data-driven clustering approach

The determination of reliable early-warning indicators of economic crises is a hot topic in economic sciences.

Chapter 26 Early Warning Indicators of Financial Crises in

Crises don't just come out of the blue. The better leading indicators seem to anticipate correctly somewhere between 50–100 percent of banking and currency ...

Recession Indicators: A Checklist for Investors | Lord Abbett

1. Decline in real GDP 2. Decline in real income 3. Decline in employment 4. Decline in industrial production 5. Decline in wholesale/retail sales

Leading indicators of crisis incidence - European Central Bank

The research is carried out in three work streams: 1) Macro-financial models linking financial stability and the performance of the economy; 2) Early warning ...

Understanding Recession Indicators - Rosenberg Research

Recession indicators, such as GDP growth or decline, unemployment rates, consumer trust in the economy (confidence indexes), and how the stock ...

11 Recession Indicators for Businesses | NetSuite

This article offers detailed explanations of the most important commonly cited recession indicators that appear in the news and in economic forecasts.

How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a ...

Figure 1 shows the trend in four of the NBER committee's recession-indicator variables—real income minus transfers, real spending, industrial ...

Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics

The behavioral patterns of numerous economic variables—including credit volume, asset prices, and the unemployment rate—around recessions have been documented, ...

Wondering How To Spot A Recession? Watch These 5 Signs

Here are the five best indicators of a recession more specific than the broad scorecard that is gross domestic product, and what they're all currently saying ...

Recession - Definition, Indicators, Causes and Effects

Recession is a term used to signify a slowdown in general economic activity. In macroeconomics, recessions are officially recognized after two consecutive ...

Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing ...

Finally, data encompassing financial market and economic developments up to the second quarter of 2009 are included in the financial crisis incidence measures ...

How to spot the warning signs of a recession | MMA

Mass layoffs in certain industries or increased unemployment may signify a recession. We've covered declining GDP growth, falling industrial production, and ...

Do Key Economic Indicators Point to a U.S. Recession? | St. Louis Fed

A common rule of thumb for identifying recessions is experiencing two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Financial Crisis: Definition, Causes, and Examples - Investopedia

In a financial crisis, asset prices see a steep decline in value, businesses and consumers are unable to pay their debts, and financial institutions ...

Predictable Financial Crises - Harvard Business School

The key dependent variables in most of our analysis are binary indicators for the onset of a financial crisis, which have been painstakingly constructed in ...

What are the key indicators of an international financial crisis?

Signs of such a crisis include drastic currency fluctuations, imbalances in supply and demand, inflation, deflation, banking clearing issues, ...

US Leading Indicators - The Conference Board

The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial ...

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) - FRED

If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been ...

Reading the Financial Crisis Warning Signs: Credit Markets and the ...

Robin Greenwood discusses the market conditions that are buoying the economy—and risk signals to watch.