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Managing deep uncertainty


Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Deep uncertainty occurs when decision makers and stakeholders do not know or cannot agree on how likely different future scenarios are. If there's not an ...

Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU)

The DMDU methods are intended to augment risk management by including the impact of a changing climate. Key parts of the method include:.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty - RAND

Deep uncertainty describes the simple fact that we often do not know what the future holds. The RAND Pardee Center uses DMDU methods to inform and improve ...

Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the ...

Deep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods ...

Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans ...

This paradigm rests on three key ideas: (i) exploratory modeling; (ii) adaptive planning; and, (iii) joint sense-making.

DMDU Society – The Society for Decision Making Under Deep ...

Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability ...

The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC

Second, science can help decision-makers manage deep uncertainty, not just reduce it. Decision makers in national and sub-national governments have successfully ...

Methods for Decision Making Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty ...

Water managers already conduct risk management. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) will help adapt your risk management to changing climate ...

new processes for decision making under deep uncertainty

Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties ...

Methods for Decision Making Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

Experience Managing Uncertainty. For instance, California's water system uses many options to manage large hydrologic variability, including: – Safety ...

Dealing with deep uncertainty: Scenarios

Deep uncertainty refers to 'unknown unknowns', which simulation models are fundamentally unsuited to address. Any model is a representation of a ...

A Review of Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty Applications ...

Decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) approaches are well-suited for making decisions about infrastructure to manage flooding ...

Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty - RAND

RDM fosters a new conversation among decisionmakers by combining the best features of two traditional approaches to uncertainty management: scenarios and ...

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty | Hydrology.nl

... deep uncertainty, and work to apply them in the real world. The book is ... Managing Director of the Dutch Research School for Transport ...

Exploring Deep Uncertainty Approaches for Application in Life Cycle ...

Uncertainty assessment and management, as well as the associated decision making are increasingly important in a variety of scientific fields.

Approaches for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty | Journal ...

Deep uncertainty means that the various parties to a decision do not know or cannot agree on the system and its boundaries; the outcomes of interest and their ...

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice

This open access book focuses on the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty.

Learning from DMDU and Complexity

Principles of Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) include considering multiple futures, not just one, in planning; seeking “robust” ...

Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on 'prepare, monitor, and adapt', enabling policy adaptations ...

Designing a knowledge system for managing deep uncertainty?

Designing a knowledge system for managing deep uncertainty? Joseph Guillaume. Institute for Water Futures and Fenner School of Environment ...