Modeling and Forecasting Cause|of|Death Mortality

Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality - SOA

In addition, the model forecasts a fast increase in deaths due to drug abuse at the younger ages. The authors have compared the model to a standard Lee-Carter ...

Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by ... - SOA

These national trends are small because we observe minor evolution of the death rates during the last few years and because the model used to forecast the ...

Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of Methods

Where forecast numbers of deaths are of interest, they are best derived from forecast mortality rates through population forecasting (see Booth, 2006).

Cause-of-death mortality forecasting using adaptive penalized ...

Cause-of-death mortality modeling and forecasting is an important topic in demography and actuarial science, as it can provide valuable insights into the ...

Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality - jstor

This model is fit to the matrix of U.S. death rates, 1933 to 1987, using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method; it accounts for almost all the variance ...

Modelling and forecasting mortality - SCOR

The Triumph of Death. Bruegel "the Elder" Pieter. 1562 – 1563. Oil on panel. Museo del Prado. Madrid. Spain. The painting on the cover depicts a customary theme ...

Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method - PubMed Central

A mortality forecast is done through a standard time-series model on the time component, while considering the same structure of the age-specific mortality ...

Multi-population mortality modelling and forecasting with divergence ...

Furthermore, the model addresses the problem of measuring and managing the divergence of the long-term forecasts of the mortality rates arising ...

Improving mortality forecasting using a hybrid of Lee–Carter and ...

Their results demonstrated that this modified and improved model provides more accurate mortality forecasts compared to the original Lee–Carter ...

Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods

Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed, and methods using two-factor models (age-period or age-cohort) have been most ...

Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic, environmental ...

Traditional stochastic mortality models tend to extrapolate, to focus on identifying trends in mortality without explaining them.

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by ...

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and ...

This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts —and alternative future ...

Risks | Special Issue : Mortality Forecasting and Applications - MDPI

Although a large number of mortality projection models have been proposed in the literature, relatively little attention has been paid to a formal assessment of ...

Multi-population mortality modelling: a Bayesian hierarchical approach

Mortality modelling is an important topic in actuarial science and insurance practice, dating back to the deterministic and one-dimensional ...

Bayesian model comparison for mortality forecasting

Stochastic models are appealing for mortality forecasting in their ability to generate intervals that quantify uncertainties underlying the ...

Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality ... - Nature

We additionally assess prediction of the timing of peak daily mortality. Globally, models released in October show a median absolute percent ...

Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction - PMC

An error term is included to capture age-period effects that are not captured by the model. Subsequently, mortality is forecasted by ...

Modeling and forecasting mortality rates - ScienceDirect.com

Taking a biological approach to mathematical modeling, Gompertz (1825) assumed that the mortality rate represents the body's propensity to succumb to death and ...

Modeling and Forecasting Subnational Mortality in the Presence of ...

We show that the proposed approach combined with a reasonable mortality model provides realistic, coherent, and plausible mortality projections ...