Prediction market

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable ...

Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

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PredictIt

Browse Markets. Check out the range of available markets on which you can try and predict the outcome. Make A Prediction. Think everyone's got it wrong? Put ...

What is a Prediction Market? - Kalshi

Prediction markets allow investors to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Learn their advantages over traditional financial markets.

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

For free market purists, the success of betting sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt isn't surprising at all. The basic theory behind ...

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific ...

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this ...

The 2024 Election's Other Big Loser: Prediction Markets - Forbes

In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, much attention has focused on the implications of President Trump's historic return to ...

Peterffy Expects 'Enormous' Prediction Market Growth - YouTube

Interactive Brokers Group Chairman Thomas Peterffy says he expects "enormous" election prediction market growth. He explains how the markets ...

Prediction Markets - American Economic Association

Prediction Markets by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. Published in volume 18, issue 2, pages 107-126 of Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2004, ...

Prediction Market - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, ...

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake 'wash ...

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

Prediction Market: Overview, Types, Examples - Investopedia

These contracts are similar to bets on uncertain events, and prediction markets are also known as betting markets. They are used to bet on a variety of ...

Prediction Markets: Economics, Computation, and Mechanism Design

Prediction Markets. ➢ A prediction market is a financial market that is designed for information aggregation and prediction. ➢ Payoffs of the traded item ...

Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now - Bloomberg

Matt Levine is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, he was a mergers and acquisitions lawyer at Wachtell, ...

Early Predictions for the 2025 Real Estate Market - YouTube

Stock markets are volatile, layoffs are increasing, and a rising unemployment rate could signal a more entrenched economic slowdown. Retail and ...

Polymarket Saw Trump's Win Coming. What's Next for Online ...

President-elect Donald Trump wasn't the only one declaring victory on Wednesday. So were the online betting markets that forecast his ...

It's not just election betting: Why one expert thinks prediction markets ...

Event contracts give markets a way to price in an uncertain future, says Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy.

Online prediction betting markets look ahead after US presidential ...

Wagering platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket want to expand rapidly, offering bets on awards, epidemics, the economy and more, ...

How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in ...

The success of Polymarket and other betting platforms in calling the election will bring an end to the era of political forecasting as we ...

Forecasting migration movements using prediction markets

We apply the prediction market to forecast immigration in four West European countries in 2020 and find encouraging results. We discuss the ...