Prediction markets in 2024 and poll aggregation in 2008

The markets were giving Trump between 50% and 56% of winning the electoral college, very close to the polling-based forecasts which were pretty ...

How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in ...

The success of Polymarket and other betting platforms in calling the election will bring an end to the era of political forecasting as we ...

Objects of the class “David Owen”

Another example would be Nick Hornby. These are writers with a sort of Tom Hanks vibe: the earnest everyman. For an example of someone who's not ...

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Proponents believe that having real money on the line, and a large crowd of investors, encourages a more accurate election forecast than polling data can ...

Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond ...

We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, ...

Prediction Markets for the Win - Marginal REVOLUTION

The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, ...

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't

For free market purists, the success of betting sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt isn't surprising at all. The basic theory behind ...

Wall Street is going all-in on election betting markets. What you ...

Political betting markets aren't new, but a too-close-to-call, high-stakes presidential election and wariness over traditional polling has ...

Don't Trust the Election Forecasts - POLITICO

Even as Joe Biden's presidential candidacy teetered and polls showed him clearly losing to Donald Trump, the election forecasting site 538 ...

The Polls and the U.S. Presidential Election in 2020 …. and 2024

There is also evidence that polling results can affect voter turnout: if the election does not appear close, then some people see no need actually to vote.

Colloquy Podcast: How Reliable Are Election Forecasts?

News organizations—and voters—rely more heavily than ever on probabilistic election forecasts from “data journalists” like Nate Silver.

THE EVOLUTION OF ELECTION POLLING IN THE UNITED STATES

Abstract Public opinion polls have long played an important role in the study and conduct of elections. In this essay, I outline the evolution of poll-.

Prediction market accuracy in the long run - ScienceDirect.com

We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time.

(PDF) Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs ...

We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls.

Who will win, Trump or Harris, according to polls, betting odds

The polls and betting odds can tell you some things about the presidential election. Here's what to know.

The 2024 Election's Other Big Loser: Prediction Markets - Forbes

In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, much attention has focused on the implications of President Trump's historic return to ...

Prediction market - Wikipedia

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable ...

Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States ...

Download Citation | Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets | This study uses election futures ...

The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets - ScienceDirect.com

This paper proposes two estimators, one based on a prediction market alone and the other based on both the market and a poll question.

Iowa Electronic Markets: Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Presidential ...

On September 29, the IEM forecast a 9 percentage point Democratic popular vote margin according to a thinly traded vote-share market and an 85.7% chance the ...