Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell Cost|Effectiveness Analyses

How We Plan to Approach Uncertainty in Our Cost-Effectiveness ...

... uncertainty in our cost-effectiveness analyses ... Rokebrand et al., "Quantifying uncertainty in GiveWell cost-effectiveness analyses," 2022 ...

Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

We have quantified the uncertainty in GiveWell CEAs by translating them into Squiggle. This allows us to put a number on how uncertain we are about each of the ...

GiveWell's Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

There are limitations to this kind of cost-effectiveness analysis, and we believe that cost-effectiveness estimates such as these should not be taken literally ...

Incorporating and visualizing uncertainty in cost effectiveness ...

Incorporating and visualizing uncertainty in cost effectiveness analyses: A walkthrough using GiveWell's estimates for StrongMinds · Propagating ...

Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell's GiveDirectly Cost ... - Observable

GiveWell's CEAs are considered somewhat of a gold standard within EA. This work was originally motivated by wanting to see how far forward we ...

Cost-Effectiveness | GiveWell

We try to quantify all the different ways in which a program may be having an effect, such as lives saved per dollar or proportional increase in income per ...

How uncertain is our cost-effectiveness analysis? - The GiveWell Blog

But while our cost-effectiveness analysis represents our best guess, it's also subject to substantial uncertainty; some of its results are a ...

Cost-Effect-Analysis: Quant. uncertainty, transparent, customize

Perhaps the most critical issue with GiveWell's analysis is that the analysis does not formally consider uncertainty. Representing uncertainty ...

Cost-Effectiveness – August 2022 version | GiveWell

Confidence in an organization's track record or the strength of the evidence for an intervention generally carries heavier weight when differences in estimated ...

Adding Quantified Uncertainty to GiveWell's Cost Effectiveness ...

My approach is to copy GiveWell's analysis closely, except for incorporating quantified uncertainty where relevant. For some variables, such as ...

david_reinstein comments on Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell ...

david_reinstein comments on Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell Cost-Effectiveness Analyses ... Is there any basis for Hubbard's 'spend 1/10th of the max' rule ...

How We Produce Impact Estimates - GiveWell

The purpose of our cost-effectiveness analyses is to help GiveWell make better decisions about how best to allocate funds between different programs. These ...

Key writings and resources | Innovations in CoEfAs (e.g., GiveWell)

Logo Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell's GiveDirectly Cost-Effectiveness Analysis - EA Forum · Logo Why Is It So Expensive to Save Lives?GiveWell. Logo How ...

The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections

Matthew Romer and Paul Romer Present for “An Examination of GiveWell's Water Quality Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.” The authors ...

Why GiveWell should use complete uncertainty quantification

In the entry, we quantify the uncertainty in each parameter of GiveWell's model. One potential use of such quantification (which we don't do in ...

david_reinstein comments on Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell ...

david_reinstein comments on Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell Cost-Effectiveness Analyses ... The VOI simulation calculation discussion you give (“This ...

Deworming and decay: replicating GiveWell's cost-effectiveness ...

Our understanding of GiveWell's approach is that any uncertainty about analysis elements based on the KLPS data which would make for smaller effects – such ...

Frequently Asked Questions - GiveWell

There is often a great deal of uncertainty in this comparison because most ... We analyze the cost-effectiveness of programs primarily because doing so ...

How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses

We don't believe our cost-effectiveness estimates should be taken literally, because they involve (1) subjective judgment calls; (2) educated ...

How we work, #1: Cost-effectiveness is generally the most important ...

We've written in detail here about our approach to cost-effectiveness analysis and its limitations. Our bottom-line estimates are always ...