Uncertainty in scientific assessments

Uncertainty in scientific assessments - EFSA - European Union

A method of identifying the sources of uncertainty in a risk assessment calculation and estimating their size and direction so that errors can be taken into ...

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments - - 2018

This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them.

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments - EFSA

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific ...

Uncertainty - Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment - NCBI

The need to confront uncertainty in risk assessment has changed little since the 1983 NRC report Risk Assessment in the Federal Government.

Guidance on Communication of Uncertainty in Scientific Assessments

This document provides guidance for communicators on how to communicate the various expressions of uncertainty described in EFSA's document.

The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on ...

Expert judgements are essential in scientific assessment and uncertainty analysis; they should be elicited in a rigorous way and, when appropriate, using formal ...

Further reflections on EFSA's work on uncertainty in scientific ...

In the EFSA guidance document, deep uncertainty is defined as 'a source or sources of uncertainty, the impact of which on the assessment the ...

Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science

Direct uncertainty may be assessed through modelling or through expert judgement, involving aspects of both first- and second-order uncertainty, ...

Chapter A4: Documenting Uncertainty

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment.

Uncertainty analysis (chemical assessments) – EFSA E-learning 1/3

EFSA has produced a series of three video #tutorials to complement its guidance document on uncertainty analysis in scientific #risk ...

Assessing the Global and Local Uncertainty of Scientific Evidence in ...

We develop non-parametric bootstrap methodologies for estimating the sampling distribution of the evidence estimator under model misspecification.

How uncertainties are tackled in multi-disciplinary science? A review ...

and socio-economic components. Quantifying and communicating uncertainties is a challenge of any scientific assessment, but is here magnified by the complex and ...

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific ...

Robust analysis of uncertainty in scientific assessments

This thesis contributes to the understanding and implementation of robust Bayesian analysis as a way to integrate expert judgment and data into assessments.

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as ...

An evolution of uncertainty assessment and quantification

From a historical point of view, the issue of uncertainty has not always been embraced within the scientific community [2]. In the traditional view of science, ...

Further reflections on EFSA's work on uncertainty in scientific ...

These questions relate to the fundamentals of uncertainty analysis – what it actually is and can do, the link between uncertainty analysis and risk, and how the ...

Communicating scientific uncertainty - PNAS

Assessing uncertainty typically involves running a model with values sampled from probability distributions over the possibilities and seeing ...

EFSA's framework for evidence-based scientific assessments

The main advantage related to the implementation of protocols and uncertainty analysis is improvement of the scientific value of the outputs.

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal 2018;16(1):5123, 39 pp. https://doi.org/ · 10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123. ISSN: 1831 ...