Voters as forecasters

Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction

We show, by analysis of the American National Election Surveys 1956–1996, that voters themselves can forecast who will win the presidential election.

Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings

A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win ...

Election Forecasters Break Down the 2024 Race: 'Higher Odds for ...

So, the GOP has seen a surge in early voting, in part due to the fact that Donald Trump isn't telling everyone not to do it anymore. I think it ...

Forecasting Turnout - Harvard Data Science Review - MIT

We compare the power of using registration, lagged vote, demographics, electoral competition, and early vote data to predict turnout.

Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction

Listed: Lewis-Beck, Michael S. Tien, Charles. Registered: Abstract. No abstract is available for this item. Suggested ...

Forecasting the Presidential Election: What can we learn from the ...

The pattern of media coverage of presidential elections, which chronicles every unforeseen event and strategic choice by the candidates and their handlers and ...

Colloquy Podcast: How Reliable Are Election Forecasts?

News organizations—and voters—rely more heavily than ever on probabilistic election forecasts from “data journalists” like Nate Silver.

Why forecast an election that's too close to call? - Nature

Four years ago, The Economist magazine asked me to construct a model for forecasting the results of the US presidential election.

Who Will Win the US Election? What the Forecasters Say - Newsweek

With less than a week to go until election day and early voting well underway, most polls suggest the 2024 presidential race is about as ...

Want to know who is going to win an election? Ask the voters! | UIS

Out of growing concern about the ability of polling to accurately capture voter intention and “predict” the results of an upcoming election, ...

Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast - The New York Times

Follow our real-time estimates to see who's ahead in the race between Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability ...

Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues polls. Issues polls ask voters which candidate they expect ...

538's final forecasts for the 2024 election - ABC News

538's final forecasts for the 2024 election for president between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, plus the Senate and House.

Prediction Markets + Polls + Economic Indicators: Better Election ...

One reason forecasting U.S. elections is so challenging is that the presidency isn't determined by popular vote but by state-based electoral ...

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538's final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it's a real ...

Political forecasting - Wikipedia

Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, ...

Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts

Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion ...

News that forecasts elections may confuse voters, lower turnout

These probabilistic forecasts can give potential voters the impression that one candidate will win more decisively and may even lower the likelihood that they ...

How our presidential prediction model works - The Economist

The Economist's statistical forecast of American presidential elections has returned for its second contest in 2024.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability ...

PDF | When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic.