Assessing the 2016 US Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts

An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters

Among these verified voters, the overall vote preference mirrors the election results very closely: 48% reported voting for Hillary Clinton and ...

Historian's Prediction: Donald J. Trump to Win 2016 Election

With the presidential election just weeks away, Donald J. Trump is predicted to win, according to American University Professor Allan Lichtman.

Virtual Issue: Polling and Forecasting US Presidential Elections

Introduction to the virtual issue by Allyson Holbrook and Eric Plutzer. Articles in this virtual issue are freely available through December 31, 2020.

The Real Story Of 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, ...

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts | PS: Political Science ...

... states that decided the outcome. IT'S THE POPULAR VOTE, STUPID: ELECTORAL COLLEGE MISFIRES AND THE PERILS OF FORECASTING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

Assessing the Impact of Campaigning in the 2016 U.S. Presidential ...

On November 8, 2016, Republican presidential nominee. Donald J. Trump won states worth 306 electoral votes, defeating Democratic nominee Hillary R. Clinton, who ...

An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR

Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running.

Regional Heterogeneity and U.S. Presidential Elections

She lost to Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who won an overwhelming majority of electoral votes (304 out of. 538) despite coming short ...

Are Election Polls Accurate Indicators or Poor Predictors?

Political Polls Cannot Predict Election Outcomes ... Take horse race polls on the presidential election and, as the philosopher David Hume ...

Colloquy Podcast: How Reliable Are Election Forecasts?

News organizations—and voters—rely more heavily than ever on probabilistic election forecasts from “data journalists” like Nate Silver.

Polls predict tight US election result. Will they be right? - DW

Pollsters are predicting a knife-edge US presidential election. They have been wrong in previous elections involving Donald Trump, ...

Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts

Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion ...

How The Economist presidential forecast works

Read about all the moving parts for our forecasting model for America's presidential election… and how to run the code yourself.

Forecasting presidential elections: Accuracy of ANES voter intentions

Our ANES 1952–2020 results indicate that the reported vote from the post-election surveys accurately measures the actual vote (eg, it is off by 2.23 percentage ...

How our presidential prediction model works - The Economist

The Economist's statistical forecast of American presidential elections has returned for its second contest in 2024.

FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2016 - FEC

Page 1. F ederal. Elections. Election Results for the. U.S. President, the. U.S. Senate and the. U.S. House of. Representatives. Election R esults for the U .S.

Electoral College bias and the 2020 presidential election - PMC

Donald Trump's 2016 victory in the Electoral College without leading in the popular vote has led to speculation of a repeat in 2020.

Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators ...

For the past six US presidential elections, forecasts of the national vote during the summer of each election year have used growth in the Conference ...

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 ...

Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.

Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings

A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win ...