- DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY OF HIGH|IMPACT WEATHER ...🔍
- Impact of tropical teleconnections on the long|range predictability of ...🔍
- Evaluating Predictability of High|Impact Weather using Convective ...🔍
- Impact of Radar Reflectivity and Lightning Data Assimilation on the ...🔍
- Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational ...🔍
- 1B.2 Improving very short range prediction of high|impact weather ...🔍
- Research Strategies🔍
- Young Investigator Group🔍
Convective|scale and short|range predictability of high|impact ...
DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY OF HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ...
the skill of monsoon prediction from the short range to the seasonal scale through the application of coupled atmospheric–ocean models. The northern annular ...
Impact of tropical teleconnections on the long-range predictability of ...
Both models display a chaotic dynamics, and the dominant variable of the extratropical model displays a high correlation with the tropical ...
Evaluating Predictability of High-Impact Weather using Convective ...
• Created from a range of neighborhood probability thresholds. • Area under the curve. (AUC) is a measure of forecast skill. • AUC ≥ 0.7 ...
Impact of Radar Reflectivity and Lightning Data Assimilation on the ...
To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over ...
Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational ...
We find that both latent heat nudging and ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of radar data lead to increased forecast skill, but the impact is smaller than in ...
1B.2 Improving very short range prediction of high-impact weather ...
Failure to characterize the fine-scale features in the model initial fields will significantly reduce the model's capability and accuracy in forecasting these ...
ACE Metric: Advection and Convection Evaluation for Accurate ...
Generally, large-scale atmospheric motions caused by temperature and pressure changes are primarily driven by advection, the horizontal movement ...
Research Strategies - Predictability and Processes - HIWeather
Further questions pertain to the representation of synoptic situations associated with different high impact weather events in medium-range forecasts. Are ...
Young Investigator Group: Large-scale Dynamics and Predictability
Atmospheric blocking describes a flow situation characterized by quasi-stationary and persistent high-pressure systems. These high-pressure systems block the ...
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events - HAL
... high-impact weather events that tend to have much smaller scale. ... predictability of atmospheric variables increases with the horizontal scale ...
Predictability - The Social Metwork
Atmospheric blocks are nearly stationary large-scale flow features that effectively block the prevailing westerly winds and redirect mobile cyclones. They are ...
Weather forecasting and prediction | McGraw Hill's AccessScience
The medium-range forecast is run once daily out to 14 days from the 0000 UTC analysis and initialization cycle in support of medium-range and extended-range ...
Medium-Range Predictability of Boreal Summer Western North ...
The intensity and area of WNPSH are usually highly predictable due to the ENSO effect being reproduced by the system well while the location ...
Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time ...
Convection starting level is defined as the level of maximum moist static energy within PBL. Cloud top is limited to 700 hPa. Entrainment rate ...
Using convection-allowing ensembles to understand the ...
These spread evolution characteristics speak to the viability of running convection-allowing ensembles for prediction on multi-day timescales, since no ...
The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and ... - Nature
We provide evidence that S2S forecasts have the potential to predict the onset, evolution and decay of some large-scale extreme events several weeks ahead.
The categorical forecast specifies the level of the overall severe weather threat via numbers (e.g., 5), descriptive labeling (e.g., HIGH), and colors (e.g. ...
Impact of radar data assimilation and orography on predictability of ...
Deep convection represents a classic example of limited predictability on the convective scale. We investigate the potential impact of assimilating radar ...
IVT has higher r2 values, and thus more predictability, than precipitation, with a plume of high IVT predictabil- ... Zsoter (2014), Extending medium-range ...
Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems
A new generation of high-resolution atmospheric models has been developed to provide detailed predictions of convective systems and wind storms. A particular ...