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Modelling a secular slowdown in China


China's shifting industries reshape long-term growth model

The Chinese economy faces short-term structural challenges, including high debt levels, overbuilding, a real estate slump, youth unemployment, ...

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and ...

... secular deflation after the economy stops growing; and (iii) a long period ... Modelling 29(4):. 1498–1504. Ascani, A., R. Crescenzi, and S. Iammarino ...

Lunchtime Must-Read: Gavyn Davies: China's Slowdown Is Secular ...

Gavyn Davies: China's Slowdown Is Secular, Not Cyclical : Is China bouncing back from a weak patch of growth…

The socioeconomic effects of export slowdowns: Evidence from China

Indeed, since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, the world economy has remained highly prone to secular stagnation (Summers 2014, 2015). Home ...

China policy: From cyclical to secular - Principal Asset Management

China's recent policy tone appears to shift from their countercyclical policies with large fiscal stimuli of the past, a move that will likely have ...

The Global Investment Slowdown: Corporate Secular Stagnation ...

Keywords: Secular Stagnation, Investment Slowdown, Hierarchical Model, Finance Constrained, Tobin's Q, ... 14Firms listed in China, India, and Japan are ...

Facing Down Secular Stagnation in China - Asia Global Institute

Asia Global Institute's Distinguished Fellow Andrew Sheng and Professor Xiao Geng say now is the time to press ahead with structural reform.

Chinese economic slowdown is a result of debt supercycle

But despite some good arguments for secular stagnation, concerns about sustained slower growth are overblown. Charles Goodhart and Manoj ...

Revising down the rise of China | Lowy Institute

China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a ...

China Slowdown: Cyclical or Secular?

One of the challenges investors confront is to assess whether China's economic slowdown is primarily cyclical or secular. The economy grew by ...

China's economy will struggle to halt secular slowdown

China's economy will struggle to halt secular slowdown · In this article · What is this? · About the Daily Brief · Geopolitical Outlook · Your ...

A Model of Secular Stagnation | NBER

We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full ...

World Economic Outlook, April 2024; Chapter 3: Slowdown in Global ...

The chapter's main findings are as follows: • The decline in medium-term growth projections is widespread, reflecting secular forces rather than forecaster ...

Will China continue to be the engine of growth in the world

If China has adopted the required programs to address the structural problems inherent in the gradual, dual-track transition approach, why has the growth ...

How a housing downturn could wreck China's growth model

The short-term outlook, however, might ignore a bigger secular shift. Mr Lai of Daiwa says the market is “very close to the end of the ...

SECULAR STAGNATION, R&D, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, AND ...

Our main findings are as follows. First, unfavorable technology developments may have played a nontrivial role in the global growth slowdown.

Is the world economy seizing up? It's not just because of China

It may be that we are in the midst of a long cycle or facing a worldwide readjustment or purge, partly owing to the slowdown and change of model ...

Can China maintain its 'new normal' growth? | World Economic Forum

The world's two largest economies, the United States and China, seem to be enduring secular slowdowns. But there remains considerable ...

Experts React: China's Economic Slowdown: Causes and Implications

Many commentators have viewed recent data out of China as presaging a major slowdown in China's economy with attendant new risks for China and the world.

Secular trends of suicide risk for residents in mainland China (2004 ...

Background: The overall suicide rate in China has dropped substantially since the 1990s, but a slowdown in the decrease and even a reversing ...