Prediction market

Prediction Market - Overview, How It Works, Types

A prediction market or betting market is an exchange-traded market where individuals can bet on the outcome of a variety of events with an unknown future.

Why Robinhood's CEO thinks prediction markets are here to stay

Robinhood company saw over 500000 bets made on the November 5th US presidential race. “It's the fastest way to get information about what's ...

Can Expert Prediction Markets Forecast Climate-Related Risks? in

Abstract Prediction markets use a betting-like mechanism to aggregate information from disparate sources to produce probability forecasts that represent the ...

Prediction Markets did NOT Nail the 2024 Election

To: Interested Parties From: Dennis Kelleher, President and CEO Cc: Media Contact: Anton Becker, Dir. of Communications, ...

Large bets in election prediction market are from overseas, source ...

Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election ...

Prediction Markets + Polls + Economic Indicators: Better Election ...

One reason forecasting U.S. elections is so challenging is that the presidency isn't determined by popular vote but by state-based electoral ...

Election predictions: Economist shares insights from political betting ...

Political betting is a more reliable method for predicting election outcomes than polling and how political prediction markets work.

Online prediction betting markets look ahead after US presidential ...

Wagering platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket want to expand rapidly, offering bets on awards, epidemics, the economy and more, ...

The money is flooding in, but what are prediction markets truly telling ...

Why are Kalshi's election odds priced so differently from the polls right now? Jack Such, Kalshi: You're correct that some people will bet with ...

Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory

Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, ...

Design patterns in Google's prediction market on Google Cloud

One challenge with predictive analytics is producing the historical data to power the predictions. Some of the most important questions - like ...

The election is over, but bettors are still wagering on these 8 political ...

Prediction markets suggest the 2028 Presidential matchup will be between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect J.D. ...

Trump leads Harris on Robinhood's new prediction market with 100 ...

Robinhood, the latest platform to make its foray into election betting, has raked in over 100 million bets after introducing contracts last week ...

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. Erik Snowberg. Division ...

Prediction Market Inefficiencies as Trading Opportunities - tastylive

Join Chris Vecchio and Jeff Joseph as they explore Kalshi's expanding markets and speculate on Matt Gaetz's uncertain confirmation as ...

Market Integrity and Manipulation in Election Prediction Markets

The CFTC has recently allowed U.S. persons to participate in election markets through registered designated contract markets, ...

prediction markets | PBS News

Donald Trump was elected president, but the grand majority of polls, pollsters and prediction markets showed that a Clinton presidency was more likely. How did ...

From prediction markets to info finance

Special thanks to Robin Hanson and Alex Tabarrok for feedback and review. One of the Ethereum applications that has always excited me the ...

Manifold Markets

Manifold is a social prediction game. Trade on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.

Prediction Markets Are Basking in Their Election Win. Can It Last?

History suggests the platforms have flourished during U.S. presidential elections, then struggled afterward.