Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now

A Mystery $30M Bet Moves the Trump Prediction Market - YouTube

Bloomberg's Mike Regan on why in one particular betting market the odds are skewed in Trump's favor. -------- Get more on the Bloomberg ...

Evidence of Prediction Market Inefficiency from PredictIt's 2020 U.S. ...

I argue that persistent and exploitable pricing anomalies were present in PredictIt's 2020 US presidential election prediction markets.

Something's Odd About the Political Betting Markets

Prediction markets took a lot of heat for their prediction on Brexit (holding steady with a predicted probability 25 percent during the week ...

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. Erik Snowberg. Division ...

Prediction market accuracy in the long run - ScienceDirect.com

We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time.

How prediction market prophets bet on the wrong president - PBS

The election outcome shocked the world. Pollsters, pundits and prediction market traders overwhelmingly predicted a huge Clinton victory.

Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets

Perhaps the most well know prediction market is the Iowa Political Stock Market, which has systematically outperformed opinion polls in predicting election ...

Prediction Markets: When Do They Work? - LessWrong

And by the crypto prediction market token, I mean the empty shell of a potential future prediction market token; what they have now is pretty ...

Predictions market thinks Democrats have the edge in election

Prediction markets believe Democrats might have a slight advantage in the coming 2024 presidential election, according to Goldman Sachs' ...

Can we predict the unpredictable? with J. Doyne Farmer (Ep. 147)

Using complexity economics and chaos theory, scholar leverages big data to forecast everything from the stock market to roulette.

Are prediction markets an illegal form of gambling? - Quora

According to our lawyers: If a company wanted to start a real-money prediction market, it is unclear whose jurisdiction it would fall under.

Election predictions: Economist shares insights from political betting ...

Political betting is a more reliable method for predicting election outcomes than polling and how political prediction markets work.

Prediction markets: can betting be good for the world? - YouTube

Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be ...

Why prediction markets aren't popular : r/neoliberal - Reddit

Prediction markets were a hot topic a while back, with some economists claiming they could be used to accurately predict any topic. This has largely failed to ...

What Are Prediction Markets? Predictit, Polymarket and Kalshi

All investors can benefit from a better understanding of today's prediction markets, where betting on politics, financial markets and ...

Robin Hanson: in-depth interview on prediction markets - Sintetia

He shares recognition with Tyler Coewn when anybody want a delibarated thought on how the future may be in our economy, Robin is the man to ask. You will find ...

How Prediction Market Polymarket Showed Early That Biden Might ...

Are prediction markets the key to finding the truth in an era of media narratives and social media algorithms? EPISODE LINK CHECK OUT ...

Interactive Brokers Predicts Prediction Markets to Surpass Equities ...

Thomas Peterffy, Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, appeared on CNBC to discuss the market rally following Trump's recent election ...

From prediction markets to info finance

Special thanks to Robin Hanson and Alex Tabarrok for feedback and review. One of the Ethereum applications that has always excited me the ...

How good are election prediction markets?

Forecasting elections using prediction markets has a theoretical appeal, as people are betting their own money so are motivated to get things right.