- Manipulating political stock markets🔍
- Polymarket vs PredictIt🔍
- Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made🔍
- Prediction Without Markets🔍
- Large bets in election prediction market are from overseas🔍
- Earn Crypto With Political Predictions🔍
- Bruno Pellegrino on X🔍
- a survey on price formation in election stock markets🔍
Arbitrage in Political Prediction Markets
Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and
Downloadable! Political stock markets have a long history in the United States. Organized prediction markets for Presidential elections have operated on ...
Polymarket vs PredictIt - stacker news
Polymarket and PredictIt are both prediction markets, but they currently have quite a difference in odds for the Presidential election.
Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality ...
The Iowa Electronic Markets are specially designed futures markets that appear to aggregate information efficiently to predict events such as election ...
Prediction Without Markets - Sharad Goel
Here we compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional methods of prediction, namely polls and statistical models. Exam- ining thousands of ...
Large bets in election prediction market are from overseas, source ...
Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election ...
Earn Crypto With Political Predictions - Polymarket Explained
Polymarket is an interface for crypto users to make financial bets on things they think will happen in the future.
Bruno Pellegrino on X: "Today finance professors have an excellent ...
Today finance professors have an excellent real-world example to explain no-arbitrage and risk premia in class. The outcome of the election ...
a survey on price formation in election stock markets - biz.uiowa.edu
The Iowa Presidential Stock Market (now the Iowa Electronic Markets or IEM), was developed and first operated for the 1988 U.S. presidential election. Since ...
Prediction Markets in Academia - Polkamarkets Documentation
This article compares the forecast accuracy of different methods, namely pre- diction markets, tipsters and betting odds, and assesses the ability of prediction ...
The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the ...
We study the behaviour of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum.
Organized prediction markets for Presidential elections have operated on Wall Street (1880-1944), the Iowa. Electronic Market (1988-present), and TradeSports ( ...
Prediction Markets: Economics, Computation, and Mechanism Design
➢ A prediction market is a financial market that is designed for information aggregation and prediction. ➢ Payoffs of the traded item is associated with.
Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk
Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election.
The Impact of Arrival Order in Beta-Bernoulli Prediction Markets
We set up a multi-agent simulation of the market ecosystem to experimentally investigate the interaction of this microstructure with a heterogeneous trading ...
Prediction Markets and Law: A Skeptical Account
See Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, Interpreting Prediction. Market Prices As Probabilities (Inst. for the Study of Labor, Discussion Paper No. 2092, 2006),.
Transaction costs cause trading to be done entirely by the traders with the most noisy observations of the event probability or, alternatively, with the ...
Polls, Prediction Markets, and Financial Variables - SciELO México
This article investigates how the results of the electoral polls and the registration of electronic bets on the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election of ...
How The Prediction Markets Have Disrupted The Polling Industry
While betting on political outcomes has a long history, the introduction of modern market technologies can potentially improve the accuracy of ...
An options-pricing approach to election prediction
In the 2016 US election polling results put the Republicans ahead in the electoral college from July 2016 onwards. In the 2017 UK general election, though set.
Removing arbitrage from wagering mechanisms - ACM Digital Library
We introduce a new family of wagering mechanisms called no-arbitrage wagering mechanisms that retain many of the positive properties of weighted score wagering ...